Mr. Trump and the Old Dominion

[Disclaimer: Politics have taken on a tenor and tone not seen since 1860. With that in mind, what is offered below is an analysis, not an endorsement or condemnation. If I vote this election cycle it shall be for the former and now deceased first president of the Confederation Congress, John Hanson. I figure that if the dead now have the vote, it would be a violation of the principles of diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging to restrict political office holding to the living.]

Recent polls conducted by Roanoke College and Morning Consult show Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in a dead heat in the presidential race in Virginia. Mr. Trump lost Virginia to Hilary Clinton by five percentage points, a bit more than 200,00 votes, and was buried under a Biden landslide in the state by a margin of over nine percentage points and 400,000 votes. Even accounting for some shenanigans in the latter race, it was still an impressive showing for Mr. Biden. Indeed, until Governor Glenn Youngkin’s electoral victory in 2021, no Republican candidate has carried Virginia in a presidential election or has won statewide office since 2004. Youngkin’s upset victory over former Governor Terry McAuliffe and Mr. Trump’s surprise showing in the polls seem to suggest that a change in trend may be at hand. Or does it? These events warrant a closer examination.

The story of the Old Dominion’s drift into the Democrat column is simple ad tragic. As the federal government continued to expand in size and scope in the last forty years, federal workers, contractors, and lobbyists began their push into the Northern Virginia suburbs. Arlington and Alexandria were reliably Democrat by the 1990s, Fairfax County was solidly blue by the mid 2000s, and most recently Loudon and Prince William counties have turned blue. These counties are densely populated, wealthy, and range from progressive to Jacobin in their politics. Combined with a solidly blue Richmond and Henrico County, these localities dominate Virginia politics. To win statewide office or a presidential election in Virginia, a Republican must do two things: make some inroads into the solid blue morass of Northern Virginia and generate enormous turnout in the traditionally conservative areas of the state: the Shenandoah valley, the Southside, and Southwest Virginia. In two elections Mr. Trump was not able to achieve this, but Mr. Youngkin did in 2021.

Mr. Youngkin’s election victory was predicated on several crucial factors. First, he was wealthy enough to finance his own campaign. Since the Republican National Committee (hereafter RNC) views Virginia as a lost cause, no money would be forthcoming from that quarter, at least not in the amounts needed to win. The disappointing results of last year’s elections for the state house were due to the RNC financially snubbing viable candidates was proof of that. Second, Mr. Trump’s endorsement helped Mr. Youngkin in much of rural Virginia and did minor damage to his prospects among the more sensitive suburban voters.  In part this was due to Mr. Youngkin’s more affable temperament and his talent for keeping the more ardent and boisterous of Mr. Trump’s supporters at arm’s length. Mr. Youngkin came across as non-threatening even as he advocated for a conservative social policy agenda. Moreover, Mr. Youngkin knew his audience; when he campaigned in Northern Virginia and Richmond he talked about economic development and toned down his social conservatism. This played well to his strengths from his days at the Carlyle Group, and with those suburbanites who had their suspicions about Mr. Biden’s ad his handlers’ ability to manage a lemonade stand, let alone domestic economic policy. It helped that Mr. McAuliffe, Mr. Youngkin’s opponent, foolishly aligned himself with Mr. Biden’s policies. There was, however, one other factor in play that is rarely discussed, save in the closeted rooms of hard and cynical political strategists.

Mr. Youngkin’s predecessor, former Governor Ralph Northam foolishly decided to support legislation that would effectively ban those types of semi-automatic weapons that frighten white, leftist, suburbanites. Overnight counties up and down the Southside, the Valley, the Piedmont, and the Northern Neck passed resolutions declaring their locales second amendment sanctuaries, most of these counties also had the explicit support of their sheriffs. There was even some talk of secession and joining West Virginia. Mr. Northam hit a nerve; Mr. Youngkin took advantage and assured the “deplorables” that he would be a good steward of their second amendment rights, and for the most part he has kept this promise. The interesting thing is that Youngkin was able to generate higher voter turnout in rural areas than Mr. Trump, especially in Southwest Virginia, and he won a greater share of the votes of these Virginians than Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020. In addition, the recent polls where Mr. Trump is shown doing so well demonstrate that concerns regarding the economy are foremost among a plurality of Virginians. In the hearts of some Democrats there is a sneaking suspicion that Mr. Biden’s administration, which is mostly former President Barack Obama’s second stringers, is inept. This bodes well for Mr. Trump, but it is important that he learn a few lessons about Virginia.

The first of these lessons is that culture matters. No one in their right mind entertains the notion that Mr. Trump will scale the blue wall in the Northern Virginia counties, but he can make inroads. Likewise, he can galvanize and deepen his support in rural Virginia’s conservative bastions. He simply needs to let go or soften his combativeness and bombastic showmanship that does play well in so many other areas of the country. True, this is a bit like asking the tiger to change his stripes, but it does not require that Mr. Trump tone down his passion, the expression is the thing. Mr. Trump has proven himself to be intelligent and capable at times, even in the realm of foreign policy where he has little experience. What does not play well in the Old Dominion (pace my MAGA friends) is his narcissism, crudeness, and vulgarity. If you must hurl insults in the Old Dominion at your political foes, do so with deft and in good English. Ignoring this cultural quirk cost Mr. Trump in Virginia in 2016 and in 2020, even in the Valley and Southwest Virginia, the heartland of Trump country. Youngkin, who is about as culturally removed from the Valley and the Southwest as one can be, was able to inspire and galvanize the people of these regions and brought them to the polls in larger numbers than Mr. Trump.  And he did so without antagonizing the other districts of Virginia, even as the Democrat tried to paint him as the devil incarnate.

Mr. Trump has several attractive options with respect to Virginia. The state is in play and yes, he can win it in this election cycle. To do so he must allow Governor Youngkin to be his Virgil to his Dante. Be seen with Youngkin, listen to his and his people’s campaign advice, same message as anywhere else in the country, less combative. A second possibility is to engage the Biden campaign in Virginia just enough to force them to devote time, money, and resources to a state they once believed was safe, thus pulling their resources from other key battleground states. A couple of campaign stops, and a bit of advertising may push Mr. Biden’s campaign into an embarrassing and costly defense of ground that the Democrats now consider their home turf. Under this strategy, Mr. Trump may not carry Virginia, but he may get Georgia, Pennsylvania, and a few other battleground states.

Does Mr. Youngkin’s popularity and Mr. Trump’s improving electoral prospects herald a new political dawn in the Old Dominion? Probably not. Virginia (and now North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia) are caught up in the same long trend that doomed conservative Maryland. Yes Virginia, Maryland was once upon a time a conservative state. The expansion of metropolitan areas due to out of state in migration and expanding governments and the hordes of contractors that leech onto the body politic. Virginia has gone all in on data centers, the short-term economic benefits and the increase in government revenues will eventually be offset by the voracious energy appetites of these binomial factories. Also, what Mr. Youngkin and others of his ilk seem blind to is that the folks who will work at these centers, and the secondary and tertiary businesses that will supply them, are often among the hardest left of progressives and Jacobins. As these centers creep ever westward, soon the Valley will be a bedroom community for these people and the dominoes will fall. Clarke County is falling, Frederick, Warren, and Shenandoah counties will follow. It happened in Southern Maryland, Raleigh, the Triad, and Asheville, in Greenville, South Carolina, and is happening here. But for one moment this election cycle the tide may be stayed.

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